Fantasy football projections
The house always wins.
Now you can, too.
Sportsbooks set their lines with real money on the line. We collect every player prop from ten sportsbooks and Kalshi, take out the house's cut, and turn what's left into fantasy points for your league.
How it works
Most projections are one analyst's opinion. Ours come from the betting market, where being wrong costs money.
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1
Read the market
Every yardage, reception and touchdown prop at ten US sportsbooks and on Kalshi, alternate lines included. Lines are refreshed through the week and again just before kickoff, after inactives are announced.
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2
Remove the house edge
Each price includes the book's cut. We strip it out to get fair probabilities, then fit a full distribution for every stat, not just a single number.
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3
Simulate fantasy points
Each player's game is simulated thousands of times, with the stats moving together. You get a projection, a floor, a ceiling, and the chance of beating any score.
The full method, for the curious
Every quote is converted to a fair probability with a power-method devig; one-sided prices borrow the book's exponent, and anytime-touchdown holds are calibrated against Kalshi. Yardage lines are fit with a Box-Cox (cube-root) normal close to a gamma. Counts use the observed ladder with a fitted tail: negative binomial for receptions, binomial for touchdowns, Poisson for interceptions. Points are simulated with each player's stats moving together through a Gaussian copula per position, measured on past outcomes. Expected points come from each stat's mean, so the simulation changes the spread, not the projection.
Players are ranked only when their lines cover enough of their projection. Players ruled out are left off; questionable players are projected as if they play, because props are void if they don't.
Built around your league
- Your scoring. Standard, half PPR and PPR today. Sync a league and projections follow its scoring.
- Your roster, highlighted. See your players, who's taken, and who's still on the wire, right in the rankings.
- Every league in one place. Switch between your leagues from the rankings page.
- Details when you want them. Click any player for the full point distribution and every line behind it.